38-57
Here is that new SurveyUSA poll I told you about in this morning's Capitol Fax.
Not good news for the governor. Not good news at all.
Read and discuss - and try to keep the "all polls are unreliable" crackpot remarks to yourself. Thanks.
posted by Rich Miller @ 11/29/2005 03:08:00 AM
52 comments
52 Comments...
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The electorate will prove itself much smarter then the governor's smug young staff believes they are.
They are not falling for the bread and circuses scam at all.
I made a comment on here some time back and I was kind of shot down with the age old how worthless and lazy state employees are.This is a fact state employees and thier family and friends are just one big voting block that he has angered.The ultimate price for this is to put him out at election time.Others will follow.
What did the SurveyUSA poll say in November 2002? What will it say in November 2006?
In 2002 we knew very little about him and know we know to much.I agree with 6:27 he has angered a lot of people and no amount of promises or give aways is going to change thier minds
It surprises me how many Democrats do not support the Governor. How quickly we forget 27 years of being shut out of the process. Like him or not, at least Democrats have a voice for programs and policies that support the middle class. I.e. raising the minimum wage, expanding picketting rights for undions, making it easier to form a barganing unit, equal pay for women doing the same work as men, and expanding healthcare for the middle class.
This governor has done more for women that any other Governor. Lets not forget that when phramacies refused to sell birth control the governor issued an executive order to force them to. How may mothers now have health insurance for their children because of the All Kids and Kids Care health insurance program?
Remember when Republicans had control and they only took care of those with an income over $300,000? With the Supreme Court going farther to the right everyday do we really want a Republican governor if they overturn Roe V Wade?
How quickly we forget...
The polls ARE reliable, Rich. On election night, how many times are the pollers wrong?
Thank you My Boy Blue for that long diatribe. Fact is, Rod's numbers are not improving despite the constant political pandering to the media and his populist followers. .Period. I think Mother Goose got it right with the following...
Little Boy Blue, come blow your horn.
The sheep's in the meadow, the cow's in the corn.
Where is the boy that looks after the sheep?
"He's under the haycock, fast asleep."
Will you wake him? "No, not I;
For if I do, he'll be sure to cry.
WAKE UP!
No a lot of us remember the promises he made and broke.A lot of us remember people putting programs together that work.Kids Care dis not working we are starting to get a hint of what All Kids is going to cost once it starts and that is really scary.Boy Blue ole buddy it is time for you to take off the blinders the rest of has.Just to elect someone because they wear a certain label is the worst thing we can do in this state.We gave him his chance and he proved he can not do the job.I would say that the majority of people agree with me.If he wanted to do something good for our party he would step aside.
Blue has a point... Every Republican has come out against Kid Care and All Kids... Dont think for a minute that will be the first program cut.
I think the Governor has done a good job keeping the state running while eliminating a 5 billion dollar defecit without raising our taxes. That right ther is enough for me to like him....
Lets not forget George W Bush's terrible approval rating his first term.... and he still won.
Its all about the campaign.
Still too early to throw in the towel, but this has to be troubling.
Without a good candidate on the GOP side, he can still easily pull this out.
it's a mistake to think that polls this far out are unreliable. they are a "smart" marker, or a roadmap. conventional wisdom is that any incumbent with less than 3 to 1 favorable/unfavorables is vulnerable to a well-organized opponent. the question is, can anyone take advantage of this (opportunity)? the (public) polls right now place the governor in a vacuum, with respondants not having to think about the choice.
what interests me, though, is how different the numbers are in cook then in the other two regions (collar and downstate). cook has 51%-40% f/u, but the other two regions are just dismal. i sure wish you could see cross-referenced numbers (eg, seniors x region). the overall number is frightening, but there does seem to be opportunities for the governor, if you look at the breakdowns.
obviously, on election day, voters will choose between rod and his opponent. their numbers (and their strengths and weaknesses) is what team rod will be looking at. i have no idea if they know what they are looking for.
my own view is that $14 million is a lot of money. one would expect that this will be used early and often to raise the negatives of whoever runs against him and set the agenda in favorable terms. and the one factor that polls don't measure is how disorganized (and self-destructive) is the illinois republican party.
it would be interesting to compare these numbers against ronald reagan's in 1983, george bush's in 1987 or jesse helms' numbers in the year before he faced james hunt (1983?). there are campaign models out there for people running with rod-like numbers...
7:15 anon you need to check your facts.This state is running on borrowed money and guess who someday will have to pay that back with interest.
Thank you 7:29, you make an excellent point. Face it folks, the public knows that they are going to have to pay back the pension systems that were robbed last year. Session will be short this year, why? There's no need to look for revenue streams for Rod's outlandish spending spree thanks to the pension raid. Some people understand that financing state operations this way was BAD FOR THE STATE. Rod will be blamed for this outrageous debt burden; mark my word.
I can give you about 15 million reasons why I wouldn't be too worried about those numbers.
wa
Actions speak louder than words and it shows.
I don't know if Ill be allowed back from exile but Here goes.
5:03... why do you have a problem with young people...Way to be ageist dude!
Eye Doc...Health insurance for children is a waste of money?...Your greed is showing again!
Bored now has the most cogent remarks. Yes, the poll numbers are not too good right now but the election is a long way off and we haven't even started yet.
But the most important fact that many of you are overlooking if that
Judy=Rod.
We have already won!
Lay off the junk food, everybody...Its bad for you.
Bring it on!
Welcome back Bill. We need you.
We wouldnt be in a 5 billion dollar deficit if the Republicans wouldnt have screwed up the pension system so bad the past 20 years. They borrowed against it also... Topinka even approved it. When the Republicans borrowed they did not institute reforms for the future like Blago. These reforms will prevent the burden from being put on future generations despite what the Republicans want you to believe.
George Ryan told the legislature that his early retirement would cost the pension system 150 million dollars. It ended up costing 2.5 BILLION!
Hello DEFECIT! I think he lied on purpose.
It would be a shame to elect a Republican after G-Rod made all the tough decisions and eliminated the defecit. You'll see another Republican dynasty take hold.
Good morning!
Governor Blagojevich is a misleading, misinformed, publicity seeker. He plays to his audiences and enough of us have seen him that we now, after comparing notes, realize he is less than truthful.
The public doesn't mind an affair, an alcohol addiction, maybe even a junket or two dressed up as talks on trade exchange. But the public does not want a liar as Governor.
The public is willing to listen when a politician says hey I made a mistake. But those are words we are never gonna hear from this guy.
Boy Blue, Dems were not shut out of the process. Maybe in the Senate where that whack-job ran with an iron fist, but Thompson and Rock cut deals all the time. And I don't mean for themselves, but political and policy deals. So did Edgar. So did Ryan.
Boy Blue, Blagojevich is hurting us much more than a Republican Governor would hurt us.
Hey people have you been reading current events.The rats are abandoning the good ship Blago.First Madigan and then Durbin.What's this new deal that the smart Democrats want to have a primary.Hey we will loan you Alan Keyes he needs a job.
Bill, what a great slogan for IL Democrats, "We didn't START the fiscal problem, we just made it WORSE!"
Good luck with the campaign.
If you think Democrats are abandoning Blago then you are smoking crack. Dont read to much into any comments in the paper... we all know how the media likes to sensationlize quotes for the sake of contreversy.
Dems are united. There will not be a primary. Even if there is a primary, Blago wont have to spend any more money than he already would have planned on spending.
There is something very important to point out here...disapproval of someone DOES NOT MEAN YOU WILL VOTE AGAINST that person. Over 40% of self ID dems said that disapprove of Blago. I would have been one of them. That doesn't mean I am going to vote for Judy. Just means I wish Blago was doing his job better. I think that you will see Judy's numbers peak the day she announces.
Keep wishing 8:40. Your Democratic desperation is amusing.
If the Republicans think that they have an opponent that can beat Blagojevich then they are sadly mistaken.
These poll numbers do not mean anything when the election is a year away. This campaign has not even started yet.
The middle class will be trampled upon with Republican control. All the great things that this Governor has done for the middle class will be taken away in favor of expanding tax breaks for the wealthy and corporate interests at the expense of our childrens healthcare and fair policies for the middle class.
"All the great things that this Governor has done for the middle class will be taken away..."
- like censoring video games and banning junk food while unemployment rises and median income falls. 27 years was far to long to wait for such leadership!
Rod's numbers aren't recovering and the Democratic panic is starting to set in. Let the fun begin.
Those who have commented in this thread that Democrats should remain loyal to Blagojevich must remeber that loyalty is a two-way street. Democrats elected Blagojevich in 2002 believing that he would be another outstanding Democratic Governor like henry Horner or Adlai Stevenson. Instead, Rod turned his back on those who made his election possible, and acted like he had never heard of Henry Horner (which is really shocking since Rod's home polling place is in the fieldhouse of Chicago's Henry Horner Park!).
In short, we ended up with Dan Walker II. Those of us who were around 30 years ago remember that hordes of loyal progressive Democrats said they would gladly support the party hack Michael Howlett over Waler in the primary and then then turn around and vote for Republican Jim Thompson in the general election. Which of course is exactly what took place.
It looks pretty clear that if the Democrats are to retain the Governor's Mansion, Ed Eisendrath must win the Primary.
The real wonder of all this: The Republicans will once again snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by nominating some extremist. The people who thought Keyes was a good idea will try and sell some other ID-peddling abortion banning stem-cell research abolishing crackpot and the people of Illinois will hold their noses and vote for Blago. The same people upset that Blago wants junk food out of public schools will vote for a guy who wants to bar A&F from selling mean t-shirts. Nobody likes Blago, but he will sure kick around whoever the Republicans toss at him.
Randall we could totally destroy the oppisition if he would step aside on his own.To bad he cares more about hisself than the party and the people.
Am I missing something here? What about Edwin Eisendrath? If he runs democrats have a very good alternative to GRod. GRod's campaign committee at the very least will be indicted before the November general. When the feds get people to wear a wire, they already have enough to do indictments and are using that tactic to get more. Dems need to face the facts and dump GRod before he damages the rest of the ticket.
If nothing else, these polls demonstrate that JBT can, if she wins the Repub primary, craft a winning electoral strategy and have a reasonable chance to beat
Blago, despite his campaign chest and the billions of dollars of state money he can, in effect,
use in his campaign.
However, first she has to make a competent run at the nomination in such a way as to retain conservative support while appealing to a much broader voter group in the general.
She will be heavily reliant on having a competent campaign staff...and we don't know yet if she does. She won't be able to do it on personality alone, and one hopes she isn't relying too much on winning by personality, however charming she may be.
There you go again Rich, with your biased reporting attacking the governor proving that you are a Republican just like you did to poor George Ryan . . . oh wait, never mind.
equal pay for women doing the same work as men,
And I though JFK did that in 1963 with a Federal law.
If he runs, Edwin Eisendrath will fail more miserably than he did in his heroic chalenge to Rep. Sid Yates. Eddie doesn't stand for anything. He has simply stood up and said that the Governor has let people down. Please tell me where I can volunteer to help this visionary.
He is a clown and will get trounced if he steps into the ring. I advise him to stay home.
I'm not concerned about blago's numbers right now. What I am concerned about is how we get the best candidate out of the repub primary who can beat blago in the general. It certainly isn'y judy baar topinka. Even while she is under federal investigation for using state employees to do campaign work on state time, she has Jim Soreng, an employee of the Treasurer's office, doing political work for her campaign. This woman's baggage will kill the ticket.
It would be best if two of our conservative candidates dropped down to other offices and left JBT and Gidzitz to battle to the moderates. Then our sound conservative candidate can win the primary and provide stark contrast to blago in the general. If we don't get out stuff together soon, we are going to blow this.
He still has $20 mil and growing in his account. He has not raised "taxes", but he has rasied fees. That is like me not punching you in the face, but kikcing you in the groin.
I'm not convinced any amount of Blago money will change enough minds from this kind of f/u deficit, absent major problems for the GOP nominee. Every time I hear about the $15 million, the question crosses my mind of how he got it all. Then I read the paper, and it becomes very clear how he got it all. It's the poltical equivalent of blood money.
The numbers are what they are, and the sooner the Gov's staff realizes their past approach wasn't working, and that they need to move 7-12% of voters, the better off they will be.
That said, I still don't think that the Gov's opposition has crystalized, Topinka's nomination is not a sure thing, and Election Day is still more than 300 days away.
But yes, the Gov's clock is ticking.
P.S. Let's remember that while AllKid's signing was pending, the Gov went through a couple of horrid weeks in the media with a new subpoena every day it seemed. AllKids was buried -- although I'm sure that was not Patrick Fitzgerald's intention or the Chicago Tribune's.
AllKids was buried? B-b-but the State Office of Propaganda and Hot Air says 99% of all Rod-mentioning nooze is positive! Ho ho.
It's only a matter of time before Rod launches into some "bring the troops home" campaign in a desperate attempt to ride the anti-bush/war feelings the voters have right now.
Mark my words today...the campaign we're about to see in the GOP primary, and the general election will be the ugliest any of us have seen in our life times.
Blago is definitely vulnerable, but the Rs shouldn't count any chickens yet. They also shouldn't count on the primary to weaken him. It just isn't a serious challenge and his approval ratings among Dems are still positive. If Topinka wins, this thing could go either way. If she doesn't, I think you have to bet on Blago unless if course he's indicted.
The failure to fund guaranteed pension funds is going to be the real travesty of this administration, and that's not even being reflected today. 20 years from now, the taxpayers of Illinois are going to be sorry this administration filled holes in the budget by cutting pension contributions. Surely it doesn't take a genius to understand how exponentially deeper the hole gets when pension funds are adequately funded and the funds miss the benefit of compunding interest.
I realize this isn't a new problem, but the problem has become larger in the last few years.
Lastly, I'll add that the Governor and the legislators from Chicago and the collar counties don't understand downstate Illinois, nor do they understand the consequences of their actions on sustainability and development in more rural areas. Needless to say, the State has caused more headaches in the last few years and has become slower in tending to its duties. The remaining good work still coming out of the State is truly a show of the dedication of employees despite the limitations and changes imposed in the last few years.
Thank you 9:02 AM, Anonymous for mentioning that the median income for the state has fallen... to the same level it was in 1989. Illinois has also lost many, many jobs. The jobs created are so low paying and don't usually have benefits. Oh, thats where AllKids must fit in.
I wouldn't count on that $15 million unless PFitz leaves Blago alone. Remember what happened to GRyan's campaign $$$$?
Did anyone hear the one about the office supply company that will probably go bankrupt but received $20 million from the state? Will we get a refund?
You just don't get it do you guys.This guy has turned the majority of the voters against him to the point if John Wayne Gacy were alive and ran he would win.People want this guy and his trained circus clowns out of office.The best thing the Democrats can do is find another canidate.Then keep thier fingers crossed that Blago doesn't get indicted.
It sounds like Democrats are assuming all of the bad headlines are behind them. The fact is, with all of the investigations on-going, even if the feds hit only .333 the 15 million won't be enough to off-set all that free media Republicans will get by next November.
If I were a Democrat at this point, and more so over the next few months, I think it would be a lot harder to write any more checks to Rod.
The people that are saying that a conservative Republican must win the primary do not understand that a conservative Republican cannot win the general election in Illinois. Senator Fritzgerald was a vote against Carol M. Braun. That is the only reason he won the election.
The fans of the current Governor do not realize how disliked he is downstate even among Democrats. He has failed to improve and clean up state government. In fact, he has made it worse. Many downstaters will also vote against him simply because he does not spend any time in Springfield. This may not be a valid reason to vote against him-but it is reality for many voters.
Forget about the polls, Bamani Obadele will make sure the Governor is unelectable. Each time he runs his big mouth. Each time he goes on the air and says having tens of thousands of dollars in his private bank funds was just an unethical act. I know, why not let Mr. Obadele run the kids care program. Being an African American how can anyone listen to him? Are we as a community that desperate to have a man of his lack of character and honesty speaking for us. That alone should be reason not to vote for the Governor.
Is "conservative mainstream voter" an oxymoron?
I expect the November election to be a simple referendum on the Governor, not an actual contest between Dem vrs.Rep. No announced Republican challenger can pull the conservative and moderate wings of the Republican party together, and even if they could, Illinois is still a blue state. A weak incumbent governor will still probably win. However, in the end, it's going to be a lot closer than it should be because the Governor has angered or let down a wide number of possible supportors.
The question is: how fluid will these numbers be in November without an attractive alternative? The Governor's poll numbers have been pretty consistently poor for most of this year and head-to-head numbers with JBT show him to be more than just vulnerable.
Right now, he simply comes across to many as shallow, incompetent, and possibly corrupt. How does he reverse these perceptions? It's going to be difficult, but $15-$20 million and the State's PR office can do much to frame the reelection issues. However, that much money, and the questions about how he raised it, can itself be a problem. It'll be fun to watch.
Well, you can thank his trusty young turks for his dismal performance. They are simply unable to understand Illinois politics and better yet how to govern. Thay have blown a real opportunity for change and opted for press conference bravado that doesn't last when you don't follow through. All the while displaying an arrogance coupled with incompetence that is a sure fire way to fail. I wish I had not voted for him. I had hoped for real change. Next time I will not make the same mistake. He should fire Tusk and Monk and get a person in who understands Illinois and displays some humility as they govern.
I think the dude is living back in the days where women had to stay home and have babies.First of all I'm from downstate I hunt,fish,camp,and drink Pabst Blue Ribbon beer.I'm from the old school and I would vote for her and most of the people I know would vote for her.We will vote for anyone except Blago.
You're wrong, 6:19. She will not get the Alan Keys conservative vote. Without these votes, she loses the primary.
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