Question of the day
For the sake of argument, let's say that Judy Baar Topinka decides not to run for governor. Who do you think will win the Republican primary in her absence? Why? Can that person defeat Rod Blagojevich next November?
posted by Rich Miller @ 10/04/2005 12:21:00 AM
60 comments
60 Comments...
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Rauschenberger would win, although I would readily vote for Oberweis if he made me one promise: If he wins the primary and loses the general election, he will never again seek elected office in Illinois.
That's a tough question, but I would put my money on Rauschenberger. And no, I don't think he could beat Blagojevich, here's why.
First, Rod's poll numbers will go up once he begins spending his campaign chest and begins traveling the state stumping and informing the people of IL of his accompishments in commericals (and even Rod haters have to admit he does have quite a few, even if you don't agree with them).
Second, Rod is a good campaigner, telegenic, and can relate to voters when speaking. He will also have Obama, Durbin, Jesse White and other democrats stumping for him, which will help his campaign.
Third, Raushie is to conservative for IL. Many people on this blog have called this state "democratic leaning." That might be true, but I also like the way Durbin labeled IL as a "Centrist" state. Overall, Raushie's views aren't centrist and are too conservative for the majority of people of IL. He is not well known and will not be able to raise the money needed to combat Blago's treasure chest.
In the end, after experiencing the power of Rod's overwhelming campaign money, organization, and force - the majority of the people of IL will give him another term.
But hey, that's just my opinion.
Brady will be the last indian standing. Partly because he's the prettiest.
The Abominable Milkman is...well, listen to him.
Gidwitz has been pegged as a Slumlord and that's not changing, plus he's too moderate for the GOP.
Steve Taxenberger will once again spend the entire campaign sucking up to editorial boards. He'll prove once again he can't connect with voters or raise money, mainly because his insecurity forces him to prove to everyone he meets just how brilliant he is -- and how stupid they are by contrast. Plus, Oberweis will come out swinging at him early for his support for raising taxes, and if you think that DUI isn't going to make 3-4 late mailings to a targeted universe, you're crazy.
Brady isn't the brightest bulb in the box, but he knows how to stick to his talking points, and he could turn out to be the best fundraiser of the bunch with Topinka and Edgar out of the way. The insurance industry loves him. So do the Chamber, utilities and IL Manufacturers Association.
Can Brady beat Blago? That depends on which Rod Blagojevich shows up for the fight. If it's the guy who slugged it out against Vallas and Burris, Brady is milquetoast. If it's the guy who's been stumbling around making Elvis jokes for the last 30 months, Brady has a shot.
To Yellow Dog Democrat:
After reading your post, I think I might have to agree with you as far as Bill Brady being the "last Indian Standing." I would have to say Raushie or Brady but do you think Brady can raise enough money?
Do you think the DUI issue would hurt Raushie? President Bush's DUI suprise in the 2000 race didn't hurt him (grant it was a national race). And as far as far as the milk man bashing Raushie over his support for raising taxes - do you think many people really care about what Oberweiss says?
Plus Brady has no name recognition.
If it is Brady, I don't think he stands a chance against Blago because I think "campaign Blago" will show up come election time, and like you said - it will be tough for anyone to beat him.
Oh, and I almost forgot this dandy, where Steve Rauschenberger compares New Orleans -- and Aurora, Peoria, Alton, and Blue Island -- to a "jungle", and asks aloud whether people in these densely populated minority centers wouldn't act the same as flood victims in New Orleans, stating that their people lack "moral traditions".
Maybe he should tell that to Jesse White, I believe he's from Alton.
Rauschenberger must have gotten all of his ideas about people of color from Tarzan movies. He's sounding more and more like Pate every day.
Someone should ask Steve Rauschenberger how you feed your kids "moral traditions" in a national emergency while the President of the United States is vacationing.
Better yet, how about the arrogance of a lecture on moral traditions from a convicted drunk driver?
Yoda -- Bush's DUI didn't hurt because it wasn't brought up in the primary, and because he was "born again." But in Illinois, among our evangelical voters who make up a huge slice of the GOP primary, getting drunk is simply not okay -- unless you've actually been Born Again, and since Ruaschenberger's oficial bio mentioned he weighed 10 lbs. at birth, but doesn't mention where he goes to church, I'm guessing he is not a Born Again Christian. Even the Democratic elected officials in "God's country", maybe 30 counties, don't drink -- atleast in public.
And voters are not going to discredit the mailing for coming from Oberweis because it will come from Tom Roeser, or some other third party. They will have photocopies of official court documents and the word "Guilty" slapped across his face.
Okay, Yellow Dog - you completely convinced me (especially after reading his New Orlean's/Katrina remark MY GOD!)- Raushie will not win the Republican primary - Bill Brady will. Here's why:
First, Raushie's a wackjob period. A bigger wackjob than I thought (especially after reading the New Orleans remark, I don't know why it suprises me since he helped bring Alan Keyes into IL's senate race) He will gain traction from the Alan Keyes freakazoids. Not enough to win him the primary.
Second, Oberweis is a crazy milk man, hardly abominable. He's a gun slinger and proved that at Republican day at the State Fair. As a democrat - I might vote for him in the primary and urge other dems to vote for him. A vote for Oberweis is a vote for Blagojevich! Plus, if he did win the primary, the Blago campaign team would probably release a video of Oberweis and a cow doing some nasty things, and he wouldn;t win the general. Is Oberweis milking that cow or???
Third, Gidwitz is just....well Gidwitz. I can't see him getting many votes at all. His campaign commericials are not getting any positive responses, most people I talk to are not impressed and are sick of it already.
I lived in Bloomington for quite sometime and Yellow Dog is right - he sticks to those talking points.
One more comment - the whole born again idea is just ridiculous, but apparently people believe it and especially the ones who experience it themselves. Maybe Raushie will become born again in the course of the primary campaign.
OK, it's late I have an early morning meeting with the Jedi democratic Council - goodnight.
I like Brady's chances. I think he can beat Blago. I still like Topinka in the race, but Brady can hold his own. As an African-American St. Clair County Democrat I can see myself stumping for Brady.
First thing is.Will AROD be the canidate?There is a possibility that the Feds might step in with an idictment.Normally they do not do that to a sitting governor but after Delay I don't think they will wait.Then it's Quinn and I think Quinn being a fresh face would win.Hey maybe that is the salvation Democrats like me need.
Obie wins the primary because of money, right wing support and name recognition.
Obie loses to Blagojevich in the general because of money, right wing support and name recognition.
If Gidwitz would bring in some of the old Edgar guys (guys who acutally know what it takes to win), they could do a nice make over for him and get him on track. He's moderate, has money and while he has some baggage, his trash can isn't near as full as Rod's. Get some professionals Ron and you mightg have a chance. Pick Braddy as your running mate.
Rauschy will win. He will get all the major newspaper editorial endorsments because he is a leader on the good government front and understands state government better than anybody else in field.
With all the talk of how telegenic he is and what a great personal campaigner he is and how much money he has for commercials, won't the Governor still be dogged by reporters at each campaign stop asking him embarrassing questions on developing scandals?
How can he possibly get traction with that scenario?
Louis G. Atsaves
With the exception of JBT none of them has a prayer of winning the general, so the Repubs should be
begging her to run.Gidwitz, Birkett, SR can't win. Too old or too compromised.
Rauschenberger is in favor of raising taxes? If that's the case,
I'm not voting for him in the primary OR the general. I have no desire to pay for continuing lavish pension and health benefits for all those state employees who don't do a full day's work (because they don't have a full day's work to do). And that's one of the many superfluous items an income tax increase would pay for.
I guess that leaves me with Brady
in the primary and sit out the general unless it's Brady, who at least is young enough to have a future and is less connected to the corruption. But if he says he'll raise taxes I won't vote for him either.
And with the demise of the moderate wing, could someone get
Kjellander to retire from Illinois Republican politics. Maybe he could move or something.
Hey anon 7:53 I am a state employee and I do a lot of jobs you wouldn't do. The only people I know that fits the description you are complaining about are the political hacks your hero Blago appointed.It's JBT and I think a lot of other Democrats will agree with me.
The only candidate that I can think of who stands even a remote chance of beating our esteemed and distinguished incumbent is Mike Ditka. Even I would consider voting for him if he ran as an independent.
Another possibility would be winning world series manager Ozzie Guillen who has hinted he might retire after the Sox win the series.
Rauschenberger is not in favor of raising taxes. When he was Senate Appropriations chair he cut taxes and spending on wasteful programs.
A Blago-Rauschy debate would be quite an event. With his record of standing up to corruption and knowledge of state finances Rauschy would mop the floor with Blago.
I like Raushenberger. I have watched him for close to twenty years, and I have liked what I have seen. Yet something is unsettling about him.
He seems caustic, mean, bitter and lacking in common sense. I don't know if its frustration, but it appears he has adopted some of Alan Keyes' ugly habits.
Yuck. So Anon 7:45, Raushenberger might not get all the newspaper endorsements this time around.
Brady has gained traction because he is attractive, appears humble and has not said stupid things about Edgar, Katrina, Chicago, fill in the blank. Plus, he is a fresh, young face in a field of grumpy old white men.
If Birkett gets in, he can win. Best contrast of all with Rod.
Yellow Dog, um...maybe you should re-read Rauch's web link you provided. He did NOT compare IL cities to a jungle, though its typical of liberals to combine statements by DIFFERENT people to construct a new meaning. Anything to suit your purposes. Sorry, you've just been neutered.
OBERWEISS!! He has better milk than all of his opponents. Seriously, his milk is really good and we all know that the people of Illinois want an honest leader who can make a good gallon of milk.
Poor Repubs. They should have kept Jack Ryan. Who cares if he went to sex clubs. His IQ is double that of Blago, he's better looking, far more articulate, and has tons of money. And he ran a tough campaign.
JBT, SR. Gidwitz, Brady, Oberweis...none has competent campaign staff, none can run a campaign.
Nothing like a person who abandons his party and ideals because of selfishness...
I wonder if Birkett can count on the support of the Rolando Cruz faction of the Republican party.
Obe wins and the reason is money$$$ Brady can't or won't write a check for himself. In the primary it is tuff to raise the millions needed to get his name ID up.
Nobody has payed attention to him since he is nowhere in the polls but he has the same problem as Rauschy he voted for the Matricula counsular card to be excepted as valid ID in Illinois he has also voted to give in state tuition to Illegals. These votes do not go over well in the conservative community or with Reagan democrats.
Three Words:
GOP Blood Bath
Whtats with all this Brady takl? Staffers bored today?
Brady may appear nice on the outside, but once his legislative record is exanined he will be foreced to defend a lifetime of stupid votes. I remember some of them.
I think it is Oberweiss. He has money and name recognition.
No one knows who the heck Brady is outside of central Illinois and withouth the means to change that he is a non-factor.
I think the person who will win is the one who can look the Illinois voters in the eye and convince them that he is qualified and capable of cleaning up the economic and ethical mess that Blago has created. Rauschenberger (at least for now) appears better suited to take on that role.
Short of Alan Keyes, I honestly think any Republican can bag Blago.
Oberweis is the only serious choice. He would be the first MBA Governor in Illinois history. And his degree is from the University of Chicago, one of the very best.
That, combined with a very successful record in business, Oberweis comes across as a professional adult. He's the break with the past Illinois needs.
The 2 Senators Brady and Rauschenberger, have been in Springfield too long. Too many bad votes, and too long in bed with the shady players.
Gidwitz is a non-likable, non-starter. And Birkett and Topinka won't run.
It dawned on me last night ... Brady reminds me of Pataki in NY years ago: State Senator, referred to a "Who?" when he decided to run against Cuomo. Being complete opposites on issues, not saying either is right or wrong, but opposites, and Cuomo being on the negative side of the ledger in public suppport, Pataki garnered support of Dems sick of Cuomo, just to vote AGAINST Cuomo. That should be the model Brady should use if he can get past this primary, and it seems to me that this senerio, with all of Rod's money, might be the only way to offset that advantage, to run as a Pataki, and Brady has that "Who?" factor
Before Brady wins any statewide general election in Illinois, he is going to need to become pro-choice.
Right now, he believes that abortion should not be allowed no matter what - even in the case of rape and incest.
Brady is a right-wing nut and he will be exposed.
Yah, and I love how Brady calls KidCare - welfare.
These families WORK, but dont have adequate healthcare through their workplaces. These are places like Wal-Mart.
How can you be against insuring our children? That is abhorrent.
Anytime we have a failed office holder who cannot take a hint and leave their own, pressure is put on the opposition party to present a credible candidate. Sometimes we are lucky and get a Thompson, or an Emerson, but sometimes they give us a nobody and everyone loses.
We've seen this situation happen recently in California in 2002, and Minnesota in 1998. In both cases, voters turned to non-politician actors.
If Republicans cannot produce a winnable candidate to face this failed governor, start looking for a famous outsider to run in 2006.
This will only happen if the Democrats fail to dislodge Blagojevich, his opponent fails to be embraced by voters by summer, and a public outcry creates an opening for a celebrity to win.
So, why didn't this happen in the Senate campaign in 2004? Because one opponent seemed destined for greatness and the past two Senators holding that same seat were there for only one term, so the inference was that even if Obama failed, he'd be in for only one term.
We cannot keep Blagojevich play acting as governor any longer, hense the pressure on everyone else.
What the Democrats have to do is get rid of him and his piles of tainted campaign contributions, and give us a real reformer.
The demise of the Illinois GOP is accellerating, not declining.
Basically the only three Repubs in the state who have any shot of beating Rod, and who have also indicated they might run, are LaHood, Topinka and Edgar.
If Topinka makes it 0-for-3 on those, then Blagojevich will barely have to leave the PlayStation to win next year. Look, I like Rauschie... but this field, sans the three mentioned above, is unbelievably weak.
The GOP will be lucky to hold set in the Legislature, and Democratic gains are looking very likely. And if Judy does run for governor, the Treasurer seat will likely go Dem... and then it's all over.
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If JBT decides not to run, we are given an incredibly weak field of candidates from which to choose. Her non-candidacy will be similar to what happened to us in 2004: we will have bascially condeded the most important statewide contests in both 2004 and 2006 to the Democrats. I am not happy with the direction of the party, and other than Denny Hastert we don't have any big names to back and stump our primary winner. Bill Brady doesn't have a chance in hell, and that's if he were able to win the primary, which we can't. Oberweis has to be the front-runner, and that scares me. Oh well, there's always 2008!
Anon 8:10: You say Taxenburger is not in favor of raising taxes? Rauschy was the front man for the Ryan tax icreases in the Illinois senate and has proposed raising taxes many times.
Saying Rauschy isn't in favor of taxes is like saying he has never liked a stiff drink and fast cars.
To all of the Brady fans:
Isn't Brady the guy that said anyone who gets a government check is like being on welfare?
That would include our grand parents who worked hard all their lives for social security and medi care, farmers who get subsity checks, vetrans who receive any kind of, much deserved, government compensation and on and on.
This doesn't seem to be a view that would make Brady governor material.
Rauschenberger has never at any time under any circumstances voted for or spoke in favor of a tax increase. Those are the facts and anyone who says otherwise is delusional.
Yellow Dog,
Your mischaracterization of Rauschenberger's blog entry on Katrina is despicable.
He's not talking about race. He's talking about the breakdown of civil society when faced with the aftermath of the hurricane.
The jungle quote was Reagan's that the president made when speaking to law enforcement personnel in New Orleans in 1981.
The "jungle" wasn't a reference to African-Americans. It was a reference to the anarchy that can arise and envelope a city when law and order fails and civilization frays.
The jungle has happened many times in human history and even occasionally in American history from the guerilla warfare in the Carolinas during the Revolutionary War, the draft riots in New York City during the Civil War, the lawlessness of American West, to the race riots in numerous large cities during the 20th Century.
I'm no big fan of Rauschenberger, and do agree with anon 8:16 in that he can seem a bit caustic. He needs to learn to vent in less public areas, even if he is right to say what he says.
Still, Rauschenberger is a technocrat first and foremost. One of the key reasons by Rudy Guilliani is actually being considered by social conservatives for the 2008 GOP nomination is his leadership shown on 9/11 and the immediate aftermath coupled by his governing achievements in New York.
Illinois doesn't need another pretty face. Illinois leads leadership and ability. We need someone who can govern.
Blagojevich isn't any of the above.
The 2006 election will not be about people voting for a candidate of their choice, it will be people voting against the incumbent of their choice.
Because of that any one of the names considering the GOP nomination will be a strong opponent to the governor just as any lowly member of the General Assembly who found the "t.v." to run in the Democratic primary.
Thanks Little Egypt! You're very kind. But I think there's a better chance of Alan Keyes switching parties than me.
To all those anonymous folks who don't think Steve Rauschenberger (aka "Taxenberger") would raise your taxes, think again.
I was watching the WTTW U.S. Senate debates in 2003 when Steve Taxenberger was asked how he would fix Social Security. Here's what he said:
1. Cut Social Security Benefits
2. Raise the retirement age
3. RAISE PAYROLL TAXES
As I pointed out on this blog on July 7, Steve Taxenberger has proposed raising the state sales taxes on everyday health care items, everything from aspirin to Zantac. Even grandma's adult diapers would be taxed more. (you'll find his quote in the Sun-Times archives)
Finally, and I hope someone will correct me if I'm wrong here because I haven't documented it yet (but my memory is still pretty good), I'm pretty darn sure that Steve Taxenberger not only supported but was the Senate sponsor of George Ryan's Illinois FIRST program and the massive license plate fee increase.
Steve Taxenberger is a classic tax-and-spender, just like our current GOP leadership in Congress.
Finally, to the Veterinarian who took acception to me linking Rauschenberger's comments together, I think a plain reading of Rauschenberger's post makes it clear that he was adopting Reagan's statement as his own. From Willie Horton to "welfare queens", we all know that the imagery and rhetoric of the GOP at that time was all about race-baiting. Reagan was afterall "The Great Communicator", and there wasn't a word that came out of the former actor's mouth that wasn't carefully scripted.
Same goes for Steve Taxenberger -- when he was mentioning poor communities, why only mention poor communities with large minority populations? Are the poor people in rural, largely white communities somehow more moral? Taxenberger sure seems to think so.
You guys can defend Rauschenberger's comments all you want. His record speaks for itself. When Pate Philip and Steve Rauschenberger were running the Illinois Senate, death penalty reform, videotaping interrogations and racial profiling couldn't even get a hearing.
When Democrats took charge and the train was leaving the station, Rauschenberger jumped on board, but he stood on the tracks with Pate Philip for as long as he could.
Oh, and as long as I'm unloading, I find it pretty hypocritical that Steve Taxenberger thinks that communities of color lack "moral traditions", when he apparently sees no moral obligation for big business.
Here's Taxenberger's vote against the Corporate Accountability Act, which requires businesses receiving tax subsidies for job creation in Illinois to give that money back to the state when they don't hold up their end of the bargain to create jobs, as Whirlpool did when it pulled up stakes and went to Mexico.
Jack Ryan will be endorsing Rauschenberger tomorrow... stay tuned.
WHO CARES?
Its always a scream to see such comments as Oberweis scares me. You should be scared of the good old boys like Brady and Taxenberger. Just more business as usual. I think the posters that are afraid of Oberweis are afraid because of the good that they know he will do. How can you argue with proven financial success? Black versus Red. Shouldn't take a building to fall on you to figure this one out. Quit trying to analyze everything and look at the facts. Oberweis....proven success story......Rauschenberger....proven business as usual. Supports abortion....yadda yadda yadda. Brady.......ZZZZZZZZZZ....boring
1:27, I said that an Oberweis nomination scares me not because he is anti-establishment but because he is too unpredictable. You never know what he is going to say, and you're never quite sure when he might cause a fit over some issue that could divide the party. His anti-corruption stance and anti-patronage platform is refreshing, but Blago had similar rhetoric and look where we are now.
YDD, to be fair, Rasuchenberger is not the only Republican who has touted the increase of payroll taxes for social security solvency. Grover Norquist has been sure to remind everyone about that.
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Team Sleep.....Be more specific about the unpredictability you speak off. Please don't tell me about the same old tired immigration statement. That has been hashed and re-hashed. Bad media production can explain that one. What more could divide the party than JBT and company recruiting Alan Keyes, Bob Kjellander taking commisions from a deal cut with a Democratic establisment, Chairman McKenna asleep at the wheel and doing nothing to get this party together. Are you not fed up with business as usual? Thats what you will have with Rauschenberger and Brady...JBT needs to retire. She has done enough damage.
After reading all the posted comments, it seems more apparent to me that Gidwitz is the guy to run against Rod. He doesn't have all the legislative baggage that goes with someone that has held an elective office, he will raise enough funds to be competitive, and his socially moderate and fiscally conservative views are very mainstream. He may not appeal to the radical right but, I am trying to remember when that message won a statewide race. His moderate message will resonant with the disaffected Dems - a much larger block of voters.
Why didn't Edgar endorse JBT in between tears or why doesn't he come forward now and say something.He could guide the party and possibilty be peace maker.
Edgar did not endorse JBT because she does not want to do it. There is too much of a risk factor...
This just in:
Edgar may endorse Topinka.
First Edgar wants alot of press people to call him and write stories about his possible endorsement of Topinka, and then he will make his edorsement if he does choose to endorse Topinka when he gets good and ready, perhaps as late as December.
One post is enough. Try to be patient and only hit the button once. Thanks.
Rich:
Sorry about the double post.
Thanks for fixing it for me.
Yellow Dog, you think Peoria is a poor community? Compared to what? Lincoln Park? No wonder Democats can't win downstate, you have no idea what its like around here!
Also, you can make all excuses you want about linking two different statements from two different people together to invent racial undertones but we all know the real reason why. The only thing you guys do better than lose downstate is play the race card to win upstate. It won't help this time. Rod Enronevich's political career will be put down like a rabid dog in Nov '06!
I believe JBT will run. Many Blog supporters forgot Paul Vallas almost won and there was a cross over of many that did not like Ryan who voted for the Blog for that reason alone. This time around with hints of grand jury indictments and scandal after scandal the “reform governor” has an uphill battle to keep his job. Even today the Chicago Tribune editorial talks about DCFS and its infamous Director. What will come out is that this administration is riddled with political hacks and Directors that give sweet heart deals to their family or have bank accounts with thousands of dollars of tax payer’s money. In the end the Blog made the statement,” no one associates with me acts that way”. Tell that
to the tax payer’s that has to foot the bill for power washing or wards of the state that has to due with less because of a corrupt official. The average voter will ask how these tings could happen and answer with electing anyone but the Blog.
Bill Brady couldn't even beat that cult of personality Tim Johnson when he ran for Congress in 2000 (with a Dennis Hastert endorsement) and he's supposed to be governor now? Has he ever won a hard-fought campaign? Or is he just planning on being annointed to the governor's mansion like he was to everything else?
And Yellow Dog, for all your complaints about Steve Rauschenberger's support for certain tax increases making him a tax-and-spender, at least he is a proponent of reality-based accounting unlike our borrow-and-spend-and-spend president and governor. And LOL at you for making it seem as if Blagojevich-Madigan-Jones aren't going to raise the income or sales taxes during a hypothetical Blagojevich second term.
JBT should run for treasurer. She will not beat Blogo the Clown.
Rauschenberger's Beard is a Jungle...
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