Poll numbers

Here's that poll I wrote about in Wednesday's Capitol Fax:

The Glengariff Group, Inc. conducted a 600 sample, random digit dial statewide Illinois survey of registered voters on June 2-4, 2005. The survey has a margin of error of +/-4%. The following questions were un-commissioned.

ILLINOIS GOVERNOR’S RACE QUESTIONS

Hello, my name is ____________. I’m not selling anything. I’m doing a quick survey of voters in Illinois to gather opinions. The survey will take less than five minutes.

Are you currently registered to vote at the address I am calling?

1. Yes….CONTINUE
2. No…TERMINATE

0 In which county do you live? IF COOK, ASK: WOULD THAT BE IN THE CITY OF CHICAGO OR OUTSIDE THE CITY OF CHICAGO?

1. Chicago 23%
2. Cook, non Chicago 20%
3. Collar Counties 23%
4. West/Northwest Illinois 9%
5. Central Illinois 14%
6. Southern Illinois 10%

1. Would you say you are registered to vote as a Republican, you are registered to vote as a Democrat, or you are registered to vote as an Independent?

1. Republican….MOVE TO 2 29%
2. Democrat….MOVE TO 3 38%
3. Independent….MOVE TO 4 27%
4. Other…DO NOT OFFER…MOVE TO 4 2%
5. Refused…DO NOT OFFER….MOVE TO 4 5%

2. If the Republican primary election for Governor were held today and the candidates were [ROTATE] Ron Gidwitz, Ray LaHood, Jim Oberweis, Steve Rauschenberger, and Judy Barr Topinka, which candidate would you vote for to be the Republican nominee for Governor? IF DON’T KNOW, ASK: WHICH WAY DO YOU LEAN? MOVE TO QUESTION 4
1. Ron Gidwitz 1%
2. Lean Gidwitz 0% = Gidwitz 1%
3. Ray La Hood 9%
4. Lean LaHood 1% = LaHood 10%
5. Jim Oberweis 15%
6. Lean Oberweis 1% = Oberweis 16%
7. Rauschenberger 3%
8. Lean Rauschenberger 1% = Rauschenberger 4%
9. Judy Barr Topinka 18%
10. Lean Topinka 5% = Topinka 23%
11. Don’t Know 42% Don’t Know 42%
12. Refused 4%

3. If the Democrat primary election for Governor were held today and [ROTATE] Rod Blagojevich (Bla-goya-vich) and Lisa Madigan were the candidates, which candidate would you vote for to be the Democrat nominee for Governor? IF DON’T KNOW, ASK: WHICH WAY DO YOU LEAN? MOVE TO QUESTION 4.

1. Blagojevich 31%
2. Lean Blagojevich 8% = Blagojevich 39%
3. Madigan 31%
4. Lean Madigan 7% = Madigan 38%
5. Don’t Know 21% Don’t Know 21%
6. Refused/ Other 2%



3. If the election for Governor were being held today, and [ROTATE] Rod Blagojevich was the Democrat candidate and Judy Barr Topinka was the Republican candidate, would you vote for [ROTATE] Judy Barr Topinka or Rod Blagojevich for Governor? IF DON’T KNOW, ASK: WHICH WAY DO YOU LEAN?

1. Blagojevich 31%
2. Lean Blagojevich 5% = Blagojevich 36%
3. Topinka 33%
4. Lean Topinka 6% = Topinka 39%
5. Don’t Know 20% Don’t Know 20%
6. Refused 5%


REPUBLICAN PRIMARY BY REGION

Gidwitz LaHood Oberweis Rasuchenberger Topinka Don’t Know/
w/ leans w/ leans w/ leans w/ leans w/ leans Refused
Chicago 4.5% 4.5% 18% 4.5% 27% 40.5%
Cook
Non Chicago 0% 11% 44% 0% 17% 28%
Collar 2% 2% 27% 10% 33% 40.5%
West 0% 37% 5% 5% 16% 37%
Central 0% 17% 3% 0% 30% 50%
Southern 0% 0% 4% 0% 13% 83%

Note: Cell sizes for Republican primary regions are below 25 respondents in Cook, Chicago, West and Southern regions and therefore carry a high margin of error.





BLAGOJEVICH VS MADIGAN BY REGION

Blagojevich Lean Madigan Lean Don’t Know/
Refused
Chicago 37% 10% (47%) 29% 4% (33%) 20%
Cook County,
Non Chicago 26% 9% (35%) 33% 9% (42%) 23%
Collar 32% 0% (32%) 35% 14% (49%) 19%
West 6% 12% (18%) 35% 6% (41%) 41%
Central 25% 8% (33%) 38% 8% (46%) 21%
Southern 40% 5% (45%) 20% 5% (25%) 30%


BLAGOJEVICH VS TOPINKA BY REGION:

Blagojevich Lean Topinka Lean Don’t Know/
Refused
Chicago 51% 8% (59%) 17% 4% (21%) 20%
Cook County,
Non Chicago 37% 6% (43%) 28% 4% (32%) 25%
Collar 20% 3% (23%) 39% 7% (46%) 31%
West 22% 2% (24%) 47% 13% (60%) 16%
Central 17% 4% (21%) 48% 6% (54%) 25%
Southern 27% 5% (32%) 31% 6% (37%) 31%